344
FXUS62 KTBW 220041
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
741 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE NATURE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 719 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE THE RISK FOR SEA FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS,
WHICH MAY ADVECT LOCALLY ONSHORE. THE FOG WILL LIFT SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY
PRECEDING THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG AREA BEACHES ON SUNDAY. THE
DRIER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY OUT THERE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
SCHEDULED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA STARTING
BEFORE DAWN AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW A QUARTER OF AN
INCH, SO NOTHING REALLY TO SPEAK OF AS FAR AS THAT GOES. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER FIRE DANGER RISK BOTH DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY ONCE THE LOWER DEW POINTS FILTER OVER THE REGION. THE
OTHER STORY WILL BE THE BLAST OF COLD AIR THAT WE'LL GET EARLY TO
MID WEEK. THE COLDEST MORNING IS STILL FORECAST TO BE TUESDAY
MORNING, AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR NATURE COAST REGION COULD ALSO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS MORNING. AS FAR AS
HIGHS, THOSE WILL ALSO BE ON THE COOL SIDE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY, AND
WILL THEN RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LCL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT PGD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS CREATING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WHICH WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS...EARLY IN THE DAY AT
TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ, LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AT PGD/RSW/FMY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING CREATING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN WILL
DIMINISH STARTING TUESDAY. THE OTHER MARINE ISSUE WILL BE PATCHY SEA
FOG THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MEDIUM IN FOG FORMATION BUT WHATEVER DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN MUCH DRIER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WILL LIKELY SEE THE
LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, AND AS WINDS
INCREASE, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, SO HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR A FEW COUNTIES. FOR MONDAY, DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED, THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AN UPGRADE FOR MOST OR ALL
OF THAT AREA TO A RED FLAG WARNING IS LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 65 74 44 / 0 10 50 0
FMY 85 62 78 43 / 0 0 60 0
GIF 88 63 77 40 / 0 0 60 0
SRQ 80 62 75 47 / 0 0 60 0
BKV 87 58 73 34 / 0 30 50 0
SPG 81 67 75 50 / 0 10 60 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL LEVY-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page