920
FXUS62 KTBW 221143
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
643 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE NATURE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY KLAL
AND KPGD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. A LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. VFR WILL RETURN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS IS STARTING TO PUSH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
HOWEVER TOTALS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HALF AN INCH MEANING IT
WILL SADLY NOT HELP OUR CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE AROUND NOON BEFORE THEY START TO DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP WITH GUST UP
TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
BY MONDAY MORNING WE WILL BE WAKING UP FROM THE MID 30'S TO LOW
40'S. ONCE WE FACTOR IN THE WINDS THAT WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
WE CAN EXPECT FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20'S TO MID
30'S. DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 50'S. OUR COLDEST MORNING WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS
WE COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS INLAND
CHARLOTTE COUNTY. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE MORNING IN THE 30'S ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THAT
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE
HIGHS BACK IN THE 80'S WITH MID 80'S BACK BY NEXT SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUST UP
TO 30 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY STARTING TO DROP MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TODAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT HOWEVER TOTALS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THE CURRENT
DROUGHT. OUR BIGGER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE THE DRIER
AIR WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE NATURE COAST AS RHS DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. WE WILL SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RED FLAG RISK ON MONDAY AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RHS BELOW
CRITICAL LEVEL WITH THE WINDS STAYING HIGH. CRITICAL RHS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HOWEVER WINDS WILL CALM DOWN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 44 55 37 / 60 0 0 0
FMY 79 43 62 36 / 60 0 0 0
GIF 77 39 57 33 / 60 0 0 0
SRQ 75 46 57 38 / 70 0 0 0
BKV 74 34 55 27 / 60 0 0 0
SPG 74 49 57 43 / 60 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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