950
FXUS62 KTBW 221814
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
114 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE STILL HAVE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HEADED
TOWARD SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, BUT THESE WILL SOON BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF COLDER MORNINGS,
WITH A FEW HAZARDS IN PLACE. THERE IS A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOWER WIND CHILLS, FOLLOWED BY A FREEZE
WATCH FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS THAT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE WEEK. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A HARD
FREEZE WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE COAST. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THAT AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A RATHER QUICK WARM-UP AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING, THEN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE'LL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER OR
EVEN MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COMES THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
SOME MVFR CIGS LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES OVER THE REGION. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY CONCERN BEING GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO IN PLACE, THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES FOR SEVERAL NATURE COAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK, BUT WINDS
DIMINISH, SO THERE ARE NO OTHER RED FLAG CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 44 55 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 43 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 40 57 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 46 57 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 33 55 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 50 57 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL LEVY-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
POLK-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
CARLISLE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page