497
FXUS62 KTBW 230725
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
225 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF FLORIDA WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER
AIRMASS OVERHEAD. THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50'S
TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS, DRY AIR, AND CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FIRE RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RED FLAG FOR
MOST OF US AWAY FROM THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN. MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. ADDING
IN THE WINDS FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20'S.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER FLORIDA AND THEN START
TO DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE HELP TO START OUR WARMING
TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF OUR WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S.
BY THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTING TO
PUSH THROUGH FLORIDA WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
DROPPING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA AS RHS AWAY FROM THE COAST
BELOW 35 PERCENT AND WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CRITICAL RHS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER RESULTING IN NO RED FLAG WARNING
NEEDED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RHS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 55 37 60 44 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 36 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 57 33 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 57 38 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 55 26 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 57 43 60 49 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
POLK-SUMTER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-
SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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