315
FXUS62 KTBW 240047
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
747 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 744 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS LATEST
SURFACE OBS GENERALLY SHOW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH OR LESS COMPARED TO
SOME OF THE 30-35 MPH GUSTS THAT WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. THIS
WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TOMORROW
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. MEANWHILE, BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL ZONES. THUS, NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED TO THE FREEZE WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING AS THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
COLD, DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING
EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT COASTAL AREAS. LUCKILY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, REDUCING THE IMPACT OF THE WIND CHILL. HOWEVER,
WITH WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT, THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST BECOMES
MORE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF I4. CLOSE TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES HANG AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MORE AREAS OF FROST LIKELY TO DEVELOP. BY MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY
WARM. THE 80S RETURN BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT DOES. UNLIKE THE MOST
RECENT COLD FRONT, THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE IMPACT TO
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE NEXT FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BREEZY NW SURFACE WINDS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, THOUGH NNW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. THOUGH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH SEAS FOLLOWING, THERE WILL
STILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY MID WEEK KEEPING WINDS BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A MODERATE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AS IT DOES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
FIRE DANGERS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 15MPH. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA, INCREASING MOISTURE AND BRINGING A MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 38 61 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 37 66 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 34 62 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 38 60 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 27 60 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 45 61 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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