296
FXUS62 KTBW 240741
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
241 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WHOLE SOUTHEAST IS HELPING TO KEEP A COLD
AIRMASS OVER US TODAY. MOST OF US ARE WAKING UP IN THE 30'S THIS
MORNING AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT
SHOULD JUST BARELY GET TO 60 DEGREES. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING CALM WINDS OVER THE
AREA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE WILL BE
HIGHER RHS. THE HIGHER RHS, LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30'S WILL HELP TO BRING FROST FOR INLAND AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS FLOW SWITCHES MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL
HELP TO KICK START OUR WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS QUICKLY GETTING INTO
THE LOW 70'S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY HIGHS WILL GET BACK
INTO THE 80'S AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT START TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.
AS WE HEAD INTO OUR FRIDAY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWLY AS IT START TO
PUSH THROUGH AND WILL BE OVER THE STATE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE COME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR BOTH OF THESE WITH
TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1 INCH. THIS WILL NOT PUT A MAJOR DENT IN THE
DROUGHT BUT WE WILL TAKE ANYTHING WE CAN GET. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY BUT WE WONT BE SEE A COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS
STILL GETTING AROUND 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
OUR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO COME
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE START TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTS TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS
SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BOTH
DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH IT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING
WINDS DOWN HOWEVER CRITICAL RHS WILL REMAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING
RHS BACK UP. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER TAKING BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH THE WHOLE STATE. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND EVEN THOUGH IT WON'T HELP THE
OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS IT WILL BRING US BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH
OF RAIN OVER THE TWO DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 60 44 70 54 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 65 41 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 62 38 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 60 41 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 59 31 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 60 50 70 58 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
INLAND SARASOTA-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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