039
FXUS62 KTBW 241215
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
715 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS
THE AREA TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TO WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND DEW POINTS COMING UP SOME WE'LL SEE
FROST IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WEDNESDAY BEGINS THE
QUICK MODERATING TREND AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
WITH A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP. OVERALL THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WHOLE SOUTHEAST IS HELPING TO KEEP A COLD
AIRMASS OVER US TODAY. MOST OF US ARE WAKING UP IN THE 30'S THIS
MORNING AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT
SHOULD JUST GET TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. BY THIS EVENING THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING CALM WINDS
OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT, BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE WILL
BE HIGHER RHS. THE HIGHER RHS, LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL HELP TO ALLOW FROST FOR INLAND AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS FLOW SWITCHES MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL
HELP TO KICK START OUR WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS QUICKLY GETTING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY HIGHS WILL
GET BACK INTO THE 80S AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.
AS WE HEAD INTO OUR FRIDAY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND SLOW AS IT STARTS TO
PUSH THROUGH AND WILL BE OVER THE STATE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE COME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR BOTH OF THESE
WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1 INCH. THIS WILL NOT PUT A MAJOR DENT
IN THE DROUGHT BUT WE WILL TAKE ANYTHING WE CAN GET. THE FRONT
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY, BUT WE WON'T SEE A COOL DOWN
WITH HIGHS STILL GETTING UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
OUR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO COME DOWN AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT STARTS
TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS
TO SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE THROUGH IT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING WINDS DOWN,
HOWEVER CRITICAL RHS WILL REMAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START
TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING RHS BACK
UP. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER TAKING BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH THE WHOLE STATE. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND EVEN THOUGH IT WON'T HELP THE
OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS IT WILL BRING US BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWO DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 60 44 70 54 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 65 41 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 62 38 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 60 41 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 59 31 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 60 50 70 58 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
INLAND SARASOTA-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...PEARCE
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