724
FXUS62 KTBW 241900
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AWAY
FROM THE COAST, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT AND
EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THE WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
LOCALIZED SPOTS OVER INLAND PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST, BUT THE
MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE FROST ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS AS DEW
POINTS CLIMB SOME. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH THE FROST ADVISORY
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DURING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE WELL EAST OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SETTING UP A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THE SAME
TIME THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE SEA FOG OFF MAINLY
THE NATURE COAST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY DURING THIS
TIME WITH READINGS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
A COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, AND THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN WELL
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK BRINGING A QUICK MODERATING TREND. HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STILL DIP TO CRITICAL LEVELS OVER INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
WEEK, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 43 70 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 40 74 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 38 74 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 40 69 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 30 72 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 50 70 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
INLAND SARASOTA-POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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