132
FXUS62 KTBW 101220
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
820 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
- SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST,
ALONG WITH A FEW OTHER AREAS OVER THE INTERIOR, EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED, BUT JUST ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE INTERIOR AND INLAND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
LOOKS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90 OVER INLAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MORE RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE, WHILE
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY AT 7-11 KNOTS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS STUCK ON REPEAT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK TOGETHER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES LOW. ANOTHER DAY OF POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BESIDES THE RECORD HEAT, ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WHICH COULD IMPACT MORNING
COMMUTES.
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH A MAJOR COOL
DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT, IT WILL HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE. MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH
AFTERNOON AS SE FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER, SLIGHTLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN, AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 40S COULD
MAKE A RETURN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF THEY STAY CONSISTENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
QUIET, PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RH VALUES STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 90 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 90 67 91 67 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 86 66 85 68 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 90 61 90 61 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 87 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...SHIVELEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page