264
FXUS62 KTBW 101901
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
- SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM AND RATHER
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY AND AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO
THE EAST DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS
ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE HIGH SETS UP WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGING BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AGAIN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. BEHIND THIS FRONT MUCH
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED MIFG AT A FEW OF THE TAF
SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AT
7 TO 11 KNOTS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,
POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER HOWEVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 88 69 84 / 0 0 0 50
FMY 67 90 67 87 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 67 92 67 89 / 0 0 0 50
SRQ 67 85 67 82 / 0 0 0 50
BKV 61 91 62 86 / 0 0 0 60
SPG 72 86 72 83 / 0 0 0 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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