394
FXUS62 KTBW 111331
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
931 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A FEW MORE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
- SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL
LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MORE NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES WELL INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
SOME AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN CAUSING SOME IFR/LOCAL LIFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5
TO 10 KNOTS THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE MONOTONOUS PATTERN WE'VE BEEN
STUCK IN. RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AS HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN GET INTO THE LOW 90S. LUCKILY RELIEF ARRIVES TOMORROW AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. CURRENT
TIMING FOR THURSDAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTH FL FOR A COUPLE
DAYS, INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH FL. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT. HOWEVER A MAJOR DROP IS NOT EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP BACK DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY, DELIVERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT, DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
40S AND 50S. HIGHS FOLLOWING THIS SECOND FRONT WILL DROP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERALL, HOPEFULLY THE BACK TO
BACK COLD FRONTS DELIVER MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE WHOLE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
CALM SEAS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS AND WINDS INCREASE. WINDS COULD
REACH CLOSE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND STAY
ELEVATED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER WINDS AND LIGHTNING COULD
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING WINDS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
AND WINDS REMAIN LOW. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 70 82 64 / 0 0 60 30
FMY 90 68 86 67 / 0 0 30 30
GIF 91 68 87 64 / 0 0 50 40
SRQ 85 68 82 66 / 0 0 50 30
BKV 90 62 84 58 / 0 0 70 30
SPG 86 71 82 68 / 0 0 60 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR...GIARRATANA
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