641
FXUS62 KTBW 111845
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS OVER
INLAND AREAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EXITING TO THE
SOUTH TOWARD EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND WE
WILL SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR TRY TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, BUT WITH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHEAST SO THIS
WILL MAINLY BE NOTICED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
FOR FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH WILL SETUP WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING WE'LL SEE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ON SUNDAY, THE FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BY MONDAY, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND UNLIKE THE ONE TOMORROW, THIS ONE WILL USHER IN SOME
MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR FOR A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ON MONDAY,
THEN MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
DEVELOP CAUSING SOME IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND
DURING THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH AND SHIFT BACK TO SOUTH AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS, THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LEADING TO MORE DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 83 63 83 / 0 60 20 20
FMY 68 86 67 86 / 0 40 20 40
GIF 68 86 63 82 / 0 50 30 30
SRQ 68 82 64 84 / 0 60 20 20
BKV 63 84 56 83 / 0 70 20 20
SPG 73 82 67 83 / 0 60 20 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CLOSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page