749
FXUS62 KTBW 120043
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO HOLD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WARM CONDITIONS. SOME
COASTAL FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH AND
CENTRAL, WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING ASHORE WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE SOME S INTERIOR
AND SWFL LOCATIONS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MIST/FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LIGHT
WINDS, GRADUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE S/SW BY LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW, WITH
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM THE NATURE COAST INTO WCFL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS OVER
INLAND AREAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OUT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EXITING TO THE
SOUTH TOWARD EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND WE
WILL SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR TRY TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, BUT WITH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHEAST SO THIS
WILL MAINLY BE NOTICED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
FOR FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH WILL SETUP WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING WE'LL SEE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. ON SUNDAY, THE FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BY MONDAY, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND UNLIKE THE ONE TOMORROW, THIS ONE WILL USHER IN SOME
MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR FOR A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ON MONDAY,
THEN MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
MIST/GROUND FOG DEVELOPING. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES UP TO
AROUND 30-50% PROBS FOR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING FOR TAMPA BAY AREA
TERMINALS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS, GENERALLY
06-10Z, ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY CONDITIONAL 20-40% PROBS OF IFR VSBYS
IF ANY SEA FOG IS ABLE TO DEVELOP COASTAL AND DRIFT ACROSS
TERMINALS... WHICH AS OF YET HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. WINDS INCREASE
AFTERWARD, LIKELY MIXING CIGS TO MVFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING, THEN TO VFR EARLY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH VCSH/TS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON,
WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBS FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS SWFL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH GROUND
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL PRESENT CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, VEERING TO
W/NW IN THE EVENING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LEADING TO MORE DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 83 63 83 / 0 60 20 20
FMY 68 86 67 86 / 0 40 20 40
GIF 68 86 63 82 / 0 50 30 30
SRQ 68 82 64 84 / 0 60 20 20
BKV 63 84 56 83 / 0 70 20 20
SPG 73 82 67 83 / 0 60 20 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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