042
FXUS62 KTBW 120618
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
218 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. LATER THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REACH THE NATURE COAST THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE COMPLETING CLEARING OUT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA, BUT A MAJOR COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED.
LUCKILY, THE BENEFICIAL RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE ATLANTIC GENERATING A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW. WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL ACTUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
MESSY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG IS
ALSO STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS. BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND 20-22Z FOR WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 21-
23Z FOR SWFL SITES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND IMPACTS FOR
SOUTHERN SITES WAS A BIT LOWER AS SHOWERS MAY BREAK UP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RH VALUES STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING SOME
MUCH NEED RAIN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 62 82 66 / 70 20 20 10
FMY 85 67 86 67 / 40 30 30 20
GIF 85 62 82 64 / 60 30 20 20
SRQ 81 62 84 66 / 60 20 20 20
BKV 83 55 84 59 / 70 20 10 10
SPG 81 65 82 69 / 60 20 20 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
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