606
FXUS62 KTBW 121337
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE EXPECTATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS THAT IT WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT
CONTINUES ITS APPROACH TO THE TBW CWA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE NATURE COAST, COMBINED WITH 30-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THERE STILL MAY BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE
FOR SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN ANY MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF THE
LINE SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE EVENT AND WHILE ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOME, IT WON'T BE ENOUGH FOR MEANINGFUL
DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS AS QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 0.25-0.50
INCHES, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. LATER THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REACH THE NATURE COAST THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE COMPLETING CLEARING OUT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA, BUT A MAJOR COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED.
LUCKILY, THE BENEFICIAL RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE ATLANTIC GENERATING A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW. WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL ACTUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT,
OCCASIONAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THE RAIN WILL THEN TAPER
OFF BY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RH VALUES STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING SOME
MUCH NEED RAIN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 62 82 66 / 70 20 20 10
FMY 85 67 86 67 / 40 30 30 20
GIF 85 62 82 64 / 60 30 20 20
SRQ 81 62 84 66 / 60 20 20 20
BKV 83 55 84 59 / 70 20 10 10
SPG 81 65 82 69 / 60 20 20 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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