850
FXUS62 KTBW 121618
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1218 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE EXPECTATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS THAT IT WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT
CONTINUES ITS APPROACH TO THE TBW CWA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE NATURE COAST, COMBINED WITH 30-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THERE STILL MAY BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE
FOR SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN ANY MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF THE
LINE SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE EVENT AND WHILE ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOME, IT WON'T BE ENOUGH FOR MEANINGFUL
DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS AS QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 0.25-0.50
INCHES, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. LATER THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REACH THE NATURE COAST THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE COMPLETING CLEARING OUT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA, BUT A MAJOR COOL DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED.
LUCKILY, THE BENEFICIAL RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE ATLANTIC GENERATING A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW. WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL BE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL ACTUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A LINE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH WITH POTENTIALLY LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RH VALUES STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING SOME
MUCH NEED RAIN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 82 66 84 / 20 10 10 50
FMY 66 86 67 86 / 30 30 20 70
GIF 62 82 64 84 / 30 20 20 60
SRQ 63 84 66 84 / 20 10 20 50
BKV 54 84 59 85 / 20 10 10 40
SPG 66 82 69 84 / 20 10 20 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page