467
FXUS62 KTBW 121806
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
206 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-DRIER ON FRIDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
STORM CHANCES.
-MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING AROUND THE NORTHERN FL KEYS AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A LINE OF MOSTLY SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NORTH OF
THE AREA. THUS, EXPECTING THIS TO BE A NON-SEVERE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, THOUGH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS MOSTLY RANGING BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES AND UP TO LOCALLY
AN INCH OR SO, THIS WON'T BE NEARLY ENOUGH TO DELIVER MEANINGFUL
DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT DUE TO THE
FRONT NOT PUSHING TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO SCT/BKN STRATOCU IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID
80S, THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE. IN
ADDITION, THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN SWFL AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT ON RAINFALL
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND FOR A
LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PULLS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE GULF AND WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME TO SUPPORT DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
QUICKLY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA SOMETIME
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES
BEFORE A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS PUTS A BRIEF END TO THE PROLONGED
STRETCH OF VERY WARM CONDITIONS RECENTLY. WHILE IT ALSO TRENDS
GENERALLY DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR FROM THE AREA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLS SO WILL KEEP A CONSENSUS BLEND IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS LOW POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A LINE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH WITH POTENTIALLY LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NNE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTIONARY LEVELS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND SEAS OF
2-4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE FURTHER AT THE START OF THE
WEEKEND BUT MARINE CONDITIONS START TO DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT, HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SWFL OR SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS LATE IN
THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREAS. FOR AREAS FURTHER WITH LESS HUMIDITY, RH VALUES MAY DROP
INTO THE 40S BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA SO DAILY SHOWER AND THUDNERSTORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 83 67 83 / 20 10 10 60
FMY 66 86 68 85 / 30 30 30 70
GIF 62 82 65 83 / 30 20 10 70
SRQ 63 84 67 84 / 20 10 20 60
BKV 54 83 59 84 / 20 10 10 50
SPG 66 83 70 84 / 20 10 10 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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