100
FXUS62 KTBW 130037
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
837 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
-DRIER ON WILL FILL IN ON FRIDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES.
-MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
EARLY EVENING RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WITH RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND THE LINE AND EXPECTED TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT. WHILE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RECEIVED SOME
AMOUNT OF THE RAIN TODAY, ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF AROUND AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL, WITH DRIER AIR FILLING INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY KEEPING THE
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THEN MOISTURE
SURGING BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 837 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, CAUSING BRIEF VISIBILITY DISRUPTIONS AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE, MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND KRSW, KFMY, AND
KPGD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 837 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE TRIGGERING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ZONES OVERNIGHT, WITH
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES NEEDED ACROSS THE OTHER
MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING AND GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 83 67 83 / 10 10 10 60
FMY 66 86 68 85 / 50 30 30 70
GIF 62 82 65 83 / 20 20 10 70
SRQ 63 84 67 84 / 20 10 20 60
BKV 54 83 59 84 / 10 10 10 50
SPG 66 83 70 84 / 10 10 10 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
FLEMING
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