733
FXUS62 KTBW 131145
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DRIER ON WILL FILL IN TODAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES.
-MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY REMAINS STALLED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH
DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
THANKS TO THE STALLED FRONT. THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER SWFL.
THOUGH MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE STALLED
FRONT SHIFTS NORTH AND A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UNLIKE
THE CURRENT FRONT THAT BROUGHT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE, THIS
NEXT FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY MORNING IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MAY OCCUR AT SWFL TERMINALS LATER TODAY FROM 21Z-00Z BUT RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF AFTERWARDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THEN MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING WITH PROLONGED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN POOR AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY
SEAS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIKELY
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER,
F IRE WEATHER CONCERNS STILL REMAIN LOW AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND LOOKS TO USHER IN EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATED RH VALUES SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 67 83 69 / 10 10 60 30
FMY 86 68 86 68 / 40 20 70 30
GIF 83 66 83 66 / 20 10 70 30
SRQ 84 67 83 68 / 20 20 60 30
BKV 84 60 84 62 / 10 10 60 30
SPG 83 70 83 70 / 20 10 60 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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