067
FXUS62 KTBW 131841
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
241 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES.
-MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT.
-FIRE DANGER MAY INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS MUCH LOWER RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY REMAINS
STALLED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FEATURE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY IN SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-4 WHERE A
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY BE SUB-SEVERE BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT, THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF THE TALLER CORES THAT CAN DEVELOP
BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED SPECIFICALLY FOR THE AREA NEAR
AND NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
ANY OF THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY WILL
MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY THE MID EVENING HOURS, BUT THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT IS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO AT A MINIMUM THIS WILL
SUPPORT A STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT TIMES, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW. COMPLICATING
FACTORS FURTHER IS THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT
CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO, HAVE ONLY ADDED
THIS TO PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST FOR NOW BUT FORECAST UPDATES
ON THIS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF IT
OVERACHIEVES.
ON SATURDAY, THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ALOFT ESTABLISHES IN THE GULF
AND A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO
OCCURS AS THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A
WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
UNSETTLED AT TIMES WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS COULD CERTAINLY RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
AN END TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH IS ON THE HORIZON BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA IN THE
MORNING BEFORE SWEEPING THROUGH THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WHILE IT APPEARS THAT BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR REGION, THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DETAILS THIS FAR OUT ARE STILL
NOT CLEAR SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WE MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. ONE THING MORE CLEAR IS THAT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS THAT
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. IN ADDITION, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LATE-SEASON FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE MID 30S
WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THIS RISK LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL
ALSO BE MUCH DRIER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH LOW POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SWFL TERMINALS LATER
TODAY BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS OR POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG THEN MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AT SOME TERMINALS.
AND LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY RETURNING TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA/VCTS MAY OCCUR AGAIN LATER
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SEAS WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND TO START THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS
FALLING TO 1 FT OR LESS ON SATURDAY AS LINGERING SWELL BEHIND
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN BY LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PEAKING
AROUND 7-9 FT. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION,
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AT TIMES AND AHEAD OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, WHERE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING AROUND
THE AREA WILL SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT BUT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SO FIRE DANGER MAY INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 83 69 84 / 10 40 20 70
FMY 68 86 68 86 / 20 50 30 70
GIF 66 83 67 86 / 20 60 30 80
SRQ 67 84 67 84 / 10 40 20 70
BKV 60 83 62 86 / 10 50 20 70
SPG 71 84 72 84 / 10 40 20 70
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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