118
FXUS62 KTBW 140021
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
821 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
-UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES.
-MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT.
-FIRE DANGER MAY INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS MUCH LOWER RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MOISTURE SURGING UP FROM THE SOUTH LED TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVERNIGHT
DESPITE SOME CLOUDY SKIES.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE,
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
AREA TERMINALS AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT, MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG,
DISRUPTING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAINLY AFTER 06Z, AND MOSTLY LIFTING
OUT BY AROUND 14Z SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SEAS WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND TO START THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS
FALLING TO 1 FT OR LESS ON SATURDAY AS LINGERING SWELL BEHIND
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN BY LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PEAKING
AROUND 7-9 FT. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION,
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AT TIMES AND AHEAD OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, WHERE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 83 69 84 / 10 40 20 70
FMY 68 86 68 86 / 30 50 30 70
GIF 66 83 67 86 / 20 60 30 80
SRQ 67 84 67 84 / 20 40 20 70
BKV 60 83 62 86 / 10 50 20 70
SPG 71 84 72 84 / 10 40 20 70
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING
MARINE...GIARRATANA
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