356
FXUS62 KTBW 141355
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY.
-FIRE DANGER INCREASES NEXT WEEK.
-COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE W GULF CONTINUES TO SEND SERIES OF VORT
MAXES OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
TROUGH THE WEEKEND. 12Z SOUNDING, LIKE YESTERDAY, SHOWS LL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 5K INVERSION WHILE RADAR IMAGERY IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NATURE COAST THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAX DIURNAL
HEATING COMBINING WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COLLISIONS TO
AGAIN BREAK THE CAP AND INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST POPS FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR
EASTWARD INTO INTERIOR AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT E WINDS AND MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS AOA 03K FT THIS MORNING EXCEPT SW FL WERE LINGERING
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SHORTLY. INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR SCT SHRA TO KEEP VCSH IN MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTERNOON
DIURNAL HEATING AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS INCREASE
CHANCES FOR TSRA THRU AROUND 00Z. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED AS
WELL. SUNDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, PULLING IN
EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY, SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR INCREASED INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY THE SPC HAS
PLACED THE FL PENINSULA IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5)FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERE LEVEL WINDS AND
HAIL.
MONDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A
LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING OUT AHEAD. ONCE AGAIN, SPC HAS PLACED THE
PENINSULA IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AGAIN, THE MAIN THREAT BEING SEVERE LEVEL WINDS AND HAIL. FOLLOWING
MONDAY'S FRONT, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE NATURE COAST WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. WEDNESDAY MORNING MORE
WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S WILL BE LIKELY. THE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS REMAIN BELOW
CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT QUICKLY INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALSO INCREASES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING, THOUGH WILL
LIKELY STILL BE AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A MUCH COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN TUESDAY, DROPPING THE RH
VALUES SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL VALUES, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES. DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 68 84 71 / 40 20 70 40
FMY 86 67 85 70 / 40 30 70 30
GIF 83 66 85 68 / 50 20 80 40
SRQ 83 67 84 70 / 30 10 70 30
BKV 83 61 86 66 / 40 20 70 40
SPG 84 70 84 73 / 30 10 70 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...DELERME
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DELERME
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