833
FXUS62 KTBW 141810
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
210 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY.
-HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MID WEEK.
-INCREASED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON'S DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG, LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE WARM
NIGHTTIME INVERSION.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY, AS TODAY, WITH UPPER ENERGY
COMBINING DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING AND THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
COLLISIONS TO AGAIN BREAK THE CAP AND INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST POPS
FROM AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR INTO INTERIOR AREAS. SPC CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS, ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR MONDAY, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM THE FL PANHANDLE AND E GULF WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS OVER THE NATURE COAST DOWN IN THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE OVERHEAD. FURTHER S GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL FILTER A COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL VALUES BUT REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
DAYTIME HEATING IS INCREASING THE LL CU FIELD AND SHRA COVERAGE
IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE THRU 20Z. AS SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR TSRA THRU AROUND 00Z. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPING.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION WILL KEEP SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING MONDAY ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL INCREASE NW-N WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER NE BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP ELEVATED
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY DROPPING THE RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES WITH
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES TUESDAY
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 84 72 82 / 10 60 40 80
FMY 68 86 70 86 / 20 60 30 60
GIF 67 86 68 84 / 20 80 40 80
SRQ 65 84 70 83 / 10 60 30 80
BKV 61 86 65 82 / 10 70 40 80
SPG 71 84 74 82 / 10 60 30 80
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...DELERME
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