668
FXUS62 KTBW 150023
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
823 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MID WEEK.
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
IT HAS BEEN A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY LITTLE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. THE DRY AIR THAT IS VERY APPARENT ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 12Z AND 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT
VALUES BELOW 1 INCH WAS LIKELY ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS IN LIMITING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE KEEPS MOSTLY RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MODERATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH PWAT VALUES BACK UP TO
AROUND 1.3 - 1.7 INCHES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO
POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED
TO CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING SSE THROUGH SSW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN FURTHER INCREASING 10-15 KNOTS
AFTER 17Z. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, SO WILL COVER THIS WITH PROB30 -TSRA AND SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 20Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION WILL KEEP SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING MONDAY
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL INCREASE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED. WINDS
VEER NORTHEAST, BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP ELEVATED
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 84 72 82 / 10 60 40 80
FMY 68 86 70 86 / 20 60 30 60
GIF 67 86 68 84 / 20 80 40 80
SRQ 65 84 70 83 / 10 60 30 80
BKV 61 86 65 82 / 10 70 40 80
SPG 71 84 74 82 / 10 60 30 80
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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