154
FXUS62 KTBW 150635
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
235 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MID WEEK.
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FL SHIFTS NORTH, DEEP MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED
THE ENTIRE PENINSULA IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO
ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO
BE SEVERE. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF I4 IN A MARGINAL
(1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LEVY COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK (2
OF 5). AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA, THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN.
BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING THE 80S OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH ONLY A FEW
POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL TURN MESSY AS THE
DAY CONTINUES AND SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
PERIODS OF BELOW VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES, THEN LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING FURTHER
NORTH AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE LINGERS. MONDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER THE
ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SWFL AREA MOVE NORTHWARD. GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE WATER.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AMPLE MOISTURE TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
A MINIMUM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TUESDAY DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HELP INCREASE RH
VALUES, BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 84 71 82 49 / 70 30 90 20
FMY 86 70 85 56 / 70 30 70 50
GIF 86 68 84 49 / 80 40 90 30
SRQ 84 71 83 50 / 60 30 80 30
BKV 86 65 83 42 / 70 40 90 20
SPG 84 74 83 53 / 60 30 90 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
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