212
FXUS62 KTBW 151815
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
MONDAY.
- HIGH PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER IN NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN S GULF CONTINUES TO EJECT VORT MAXES
OVER THE E GULF THE FL PENINSULA COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND THE GULF SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWARD AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
AS SPC KEEPS THE ENTIRE PENINSULA IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO
ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH GUSTY HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
A BROKEN PRE FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
FURTHER S THRU THE AFTERNOON THEN SW FL IN THE EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF I4 IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LEVY COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5). AS
THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE WAVE
ACTION PRODUCING A RIP CURRENT RISK MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL FILTER A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CLIMATE
LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLOWLY MOVES
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EVENTUALLY MODERATES CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
SEABREEZE SHRA/TSRA ONGOING WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR STRONGER CELLS THRU 21Z NEAR THE COAST AND
THRU 00Z INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE AFTER 00Z-02Z. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFT 15Z LIKELY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY WITH BUILDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TUESDAY
WILL BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPY ELEVATED SEAS KEEPING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY WILL FILTER A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA WITH MIN RHS FALLING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED RH VALUES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION WILL DROP
MIN RHS AREAWIDE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 82 49 62 / 30 80 20 0
FMY 69 85 56 68 / 40 60 60 10
GIF 67 84 49 62 / 40 80 30 0
SRQ 70 83 49 64 / 30 70 30 0
BKV 64 83 41 62 / 40 80 20 0
SPG 73 82 54 64 / 30 80 20 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...DELERME
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DELERME
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page