423
FXUS62 KTBW 160019
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
819 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER IN NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
IT HAS BEEN A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG STORMS MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 INCH HAIL, GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 30-40 MPH AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES WITH
SOME FLOODING WERE REPORTED IN THESE STRONG STORMS. LATEST RADAR IS
STILL SHOWING STORMS FIRING OVER THE AREA, BUT THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OF MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER DAY OF INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS PLACED
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. MADE SOME
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IMPACTING
ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30-40 MPH.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE AND VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WILL TAPER OFF IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE LOCAL BEACHES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS VEER NORTHEAST BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
ELEVATED WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 82 49 62 / 50 80 20 0
FMY 69 85 56 68 / 50 60 60 10
GIF 67 84 49 62 / 60 80 30 0
SRQ 70 83 49 64 / 40 70 30 0
BKV 64 83 41 62 / 60 80 20 0
SPG 73 82 54 64 / 50 80 20 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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