838
FXUS62 KTBW 160730
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER IN NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE,
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS CLIMBING AGAIN TO 1.5"- 1.7". THE HUMID AIR
AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS LINE WILL ENTER THE
NATURE COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, I-4 CORRIDOR/METRO TAMPA BAY
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, AND SW FL BY THE EARLY EVENING. FROM METRO
TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WHERE AS FURTHER SOUTH, LAPSE RATES ARE
MORE MOIST ADIABATIC WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
LINE'S INTENSITY BY THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. WHILE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
APPROACHING 50 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, THE
TORNADO THREAT IS LOW. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL (SLIGHTLY MORE CURVE IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES).
ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE LARGELY TIED TO A QUICKLY FORMING,
LOW-END QLCS SPIN UP.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE. RAPID COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO PLUMMET AFTER
SUNSET. AROUND THIS TIME, WE COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN
PARTS OF LEVY CO. AND TEMPS IN THE 70S IN LEE CO. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S IN THE NATURE COAST TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN SW FL. WINDS
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROST ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. LARGELY, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FROST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN PARTS OF INLAND LEVY AND CITRUS CO. AS TEMPS AGAIN FALL, AND
WINDS BECOME CALM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO MODERATE AND TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOW 80S
BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT
CAUSING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AS THEY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO
35 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER, WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST THEN NORTH TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AHEAD OF
IT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE BOUNDARY
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
ELEVATED WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING A MUCH COOLER
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. MOISTURE
INCREASES SOME FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 48 62 47 / 80 20 0 0
FMY 85 55 67 52 / 70 60 10 10
GIF 84 47 63 47 / 80 30 0 0
SRQ 83 48 64 48 / 80 30 0 0
BKV 83 40 62 38 / 80 20 0 0
SPG 82 51 64 53 / 80 20 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION...BARRON
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...BARRON
CLIMATE...CLOSE
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