722
FXUS62 KTBW 161330
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
930 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER IN NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WINDS WILL BE BECOMING GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WHEN THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT, BUT SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SOME MID 30S FOR
LOWS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 25-35 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ALL OF
THIS AND HAVE NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AROUND 1000FT CAUSING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL AGAIN BRING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO MVFR/IFR AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING
TOWARDS MORNING TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING
EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BE HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
HAVE LITTLE CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 48 62 47 / 80 20 0 0
FMY 85 55 67 52 / 70 60 10 10
GIF 84 47 63 47 / 80 30 0 0
SRQ 83 48 64 48 / 80 30 0 0
BKV 83 40 62 38 / 80 20 0 0
SPG 82 51 64 53 / 80 20 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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