639
FXUS62 KTBW 161907
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
307 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LEVY TO PASCO COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER IN NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IN PLACE ACROSS LEVY COUNTY. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY SOUTH THROUGH PASCO COUNTIES
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS STILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, THE TORNADO THREAT IS GREAT
ENOUGH FOR THE TOR WATCH. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH TODAY'S
STORMS.
THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXPECTED, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES LOWER,
BRINGING SOME AREAS TO FEELS-LIKE BELOW FREEZING BOTH MORNINGS.
CONDITIONS THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING SOME TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY,
LIGHTENING SOME OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL HAVING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE BY WEDNESDAY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO
15 KTS, BUT THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL
BRING SOME CRITICAL HUMIDITIES ACROSS MAINLY THE NATURE COAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS
THOUGH, SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS THEN
MODERATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 48 62 47 71 / 20 0 0 0
FMY 54 67 50 73 / 60 10 0 10
GIF 47 63 46 71 / 30 0 0 0
SRQ 47 63 47 71 / 30 0 0 0
BKV 40 62 37 71 / 20 0 0 0
SPG 53 64 53 72 / 20 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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