498
FXUS62 KTBW 232317
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
717 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
ANOTHER WARM, PLEASANT DAY TODAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE PATTERN
CHANGES SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH
OVER FL. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ALONG I4 WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
DISSIPATING THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT LINGERS, EXTRA MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH OF I4. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/ EARLY
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO
POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOME TIME ON SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS THIS SECOND FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ WILL LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10KTS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND STALLS. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE WATER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STALLED
FRONT. PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. BY
SUNDAY MORNING, ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH FRONTS MOVING THROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BRING WIDE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY STAY OVER LAND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH RH VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO
CRITERIA LEVELS, ESPECIALLY INLAND. HUMIDITY BEGINS TO INCREASE
TOMORROW AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER FL BEFORE STALLING
OUT WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 63 82 65 82 / 0 20 10 20
FMY 58 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 58 85 65 82 / 0 40 20 50
SRQ 62 81 64 83 / 0 10 0 20
BKV 56 83 60 82 / 0 30 10 30
SPG 66 81 69 82 / 0 10 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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