682
FXUS62 KTBW 240638
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
238 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEW RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY STALLING ALONG THE I-
4 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BOTH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL ALSO SEE A SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 70'S TO LOW 80'S NORTH OF I-4
WITH MID TO UPPER 80'S TO THE SOUTH.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY BUT AS IT DOES SO A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
START TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO WE WILL SEE
SOME WARMER AIR ADVECT OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR
RECORD BREAKING HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WE SEE HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
HEADS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING
IN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S. BY MONDAY THE FRONT WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF FLORIDA AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW 80'S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MOST TERMINAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO
AVOID IMPACTS. RSW LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IFR VIS AS
THE SUN RISES. BESIDE THAT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO OUR SATURDAY AND INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
RHS WILL START TO RISE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA. THIS STALL FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SADLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HELP WITH THE CURRENT
DROUGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 65 83 64 / 10 10 30 0
FMY 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 20 0
GIF 85 65 82 64 / 30 10 50 0
SRQ 80 64 84 64 / 10 0 20 0
BKV 83 60 82 58 / 30 10 30 0
SPG 82 68 83 67 / 10 0 20 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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