904
FXUS62 KTBW 241314
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
- NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEW RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 834 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A RELATIVELY COOL MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG PRESENT IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WHAT IS LEFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS A SERIES OF ASSOCIATED U/L DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD PULL SOME MOISTURE,
HOWEVER, IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
PWS IN THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOWING AROUND 0.60 IN. A NON ZERO
CHANCE REMAINS NONETHELESS, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS
AND THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONALLY, CLOUD COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80, WHILE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (EXCEPT
FOR COASTAL AREAS).
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, NO CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY BUT AS IT DOES SO A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
START TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO WE WILL SEE
SOME WARMER AIR ADVECT OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR
RECORD BREAKING HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WE SEE HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL START TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
HEADS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING
IN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S. BY MONDAY THE FRONT WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF FLORIDA AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW 80'S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 834 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
PATCHY FOG IS PRESENT NEAR OR OVER SOME TERMINALS BRINGING IFR
CEILINGS AND VIS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY INTO THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 65 83 64 / 10 10 30 0
FMY 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 20 0
GIF 85 65 82 64 / 30 10 50 0
SRQ 80 64 84 64 / 10 0 20 0
BKV 83 60 82 58 / 30 10 30 0
SPG 82 68 83 67 / 10 0 20 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DELERME/SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
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