492
FXUS62 KTBW 241808
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
208 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
- NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEW RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM TDY-WED)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PARADISE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND MAY SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING, SO THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO BE SQUEEZED A BIT TO SUPPORT ANY ACTIVITY.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE ALOFT, DAYTIME HEATING AND THE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY HELP BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE. IF IT IS NOT
TOO LATE, THIS MAY OCCUR. NONETHELESS, A NON ZERO CHANCE REMAINS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
LONG TERM (THU-MON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
DURING THE LONG TERM, A HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST PUSHING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THEN, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START TO
APPROACH THE REGION ADVECTING WARMER AIR OVER THE STATE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WE SEE
HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. THE BOUNDARY WILL START TO SLOW DOWN
AS IT HEADS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S.
BY MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA AS HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE LOW 80'S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE INTERIOR AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE SEA BREEZE
STAYING FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. PATCHY FOG RETURNS TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AND WHEN
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. MOST OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH MORE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY OUT OF
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO OUR SATURDAY AND INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 40-50 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 83 64 84 / 10 30 0 10
FMY 63 86 64 87 / 0 20 0 10
GIF 65 82 64 84 / 10 50 0 20
SRQ 64 84 64 84 / 0 20 0 10
BKV 60 82 58 86 / 10 30 0 10
SPG 68 83 67 84 / 0 20 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
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