953
FXUS62 KTBW 250030
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.
- NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEW RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE INTERSECTION OF AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS GENERATED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
THE HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTY BORDERS EXTENDING INTO HARDEE COUNTY.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES INITIALLY
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM TDY-WED)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PARADISE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND MAY SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING, SO THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO BE SQUEEZED A BIT TO SUPPORT ANY ACTIVITY.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE ALOFT, DAYTIME HEATING AND THE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY HELP BRING SOME MORE MOISTURE. IF IT IS NOT
TOO LATE, THIS MAY OCCUR. NONETHELESS, A NON ZERO CHANCE REMAINS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BUT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
LONG TERM (THU-MON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
DURING THE LONG TERM, A HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST PUSHING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. THEN, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START TO
APPROACH THE REGION ADVECTING WARMER AIR OVER THE STATE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WE SEE
HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. THE BOUNDARY WILL START TO SLOW DOWN
AS IT HEADS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S.
BY MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA AS HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE LOW 80'S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LIFT SLOWLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING VCNTY ALL TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY WITH LCL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY OUT OF
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO OUR SATURDAY AND INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 40-50 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 82 66 85 / 10 20 0 10
FMY 63 85 64 86 / 0 20 0 10
GIF 66 83 64 86 / 20 40 0 20
SRQ 65 84 64 83 / 0 20 0 10
BKV 60 83 59 86 / 10 20 0 10
SPG 69 83 69 84 / 0 10 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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