864
FXUS62 KTBW 250655
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
255 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.
- NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEW RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
A WEAK STALL OUT BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR PART OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY START TO
DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY HOWEVER A SHOWER OR TWO STILL CAN'T BE RULE
OUT DURING THE DAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. AS IT DOES SO WE WILL SEE A WARMER AIRMASS PUSH OVER THE
STATE. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING OUR HIGHS NEAR RECORD BREAKING IN THE
UPPER 80'S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE IN THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE JUST
SOUTH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE US TO SEE SOME GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC
SLOWLY MODIFY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURE IN THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70'S WHILE AREAS CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80'S. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF US ON MONDAY HOWEVER AS IT
WEAKENS THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL COME DOWN ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80'S FOR EVERYONE.
ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE NEXT TUESDAY
ENDING THE SHOWER CHANCES AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD LOW CEILING THIS MORNING BRING IN MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 14Z
WHEN CEILING ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
A WEAK STALLED OUT COLD FRONT WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA
TODAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY BRINGING WINDS DOWN
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. HOWEVER OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE
HEADING OUR WAY ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE WINDS
REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BUT INCREASING QUICKLY TO AROUND 20
TO 25 KNOTS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
RHS LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER WE WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP 25 MPH OUT OF THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 66 84 66 / 20 10 10 0
FMY 85 64 86 64 / 20 10 10 0
GIF 83 64 85 64 / 50 10 30 0
SRQ 83 65 82 64 / 20 10 10 0
BKV 83 59 86 59 / 20 10 20 0
SPG 83 68 84 68 / 20 10 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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