118
FXUS62 KTBW 251213
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
813 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
- NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEW RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING LOW CIGS ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO STAY
INLAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR TWO GET NEAR SOME OF
THE TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
A WEAK STALL OUT BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR PART OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY START TO
DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY HOWEVER A SHOWER OR TWO STILL CAN'T BE RULE
OUT DURING THE DAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. AS IT DOES SO WE WILL SEE A WARMER AIRMASS PUSH OVER THE
STATE. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING OUR HIGHS NEAR RECORD BREAKING IN THE
UPPER 80'S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE IN THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE JUST
SOUTH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE US TO SEE SOME GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC
SLOWLY MODIFY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURE IN THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70'S WHILE AREAS CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80'S. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF US ON MONDAY HOWEVER AS IT
WEAKENS THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL COME DOWN ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80'S FOR EVERYONE.
ONCE AGAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE NEXT TUESDAY
ENDING THE SHOWER CHANCES AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 66 84 66 / 20 10 10 0
FMY 85 64 86 64 / 20 10 10 0
GIF 83 64 85 64 / 50 10 30 0
SRQ 83 65 82 64 / 20 10 10 0
BKV 83 59 86 59 / 20 10 20 0
SPG 83 68 84 68 / 20 10 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DELERME/SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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