718
FXUS62 KTBW 260023
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
823 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
- NIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEW RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING GENERALLY STRETCHING FROM
COASTAL WCFL INTO SWFL CONTINUES TO OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP IN
INTENSITY, WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH 830
PM ALONG MUCH OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM MANATEE THROUGH CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES, WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM
FOR THE MYAKKA CITY AREA OF SE MANATEE COUNTY, WHERE RAINFALL
ESTIMATES RANGE UP TO BETWEEN 3-4 INCHES LEADING TO POTENTIAL
MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM THE COMBO OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WC/SWFL AND SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING, WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT LOW CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS
SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-4, WHILE AREAS NORTHWARD MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER.
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
MANY CU DECORATING THE SKIES AND ADVECTING FROM THE EAST WITH A FEW
GROWING TO BE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS TROUGHINESS REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HIGHEST CHANCES
STAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY OVER SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH
INLAND SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE COLLISION OF IT WITH THE EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD FROM THE WEST PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
INTERIOR, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A GRADUAL WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES WHILE ANOTHER U/L DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR
RECORD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WE SEE HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ON SUNDAY, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S.
BY NEXT WEEK, THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA WITH MUCH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB UP INTO THE 80S DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS COASTAL WC/SWFL WITH IMPACTS ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 02-03Z OR SO, WITH VCTS/TSRA
CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHILE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS
LIKELY MOSTLY VCSH/SHRA. OVERNIGHT CONCERN SHIFTS TO MVFR/LCL IFR
CIGS, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING 50-60% CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CIGS ACROSS SWFL TERMINALS, WITH CHANCES GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW
50% FOR WCFL TERMINALS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO BE LESS OF A
CONCERN FOR NOW WITH CHANCES BELOW 30% ACROSS SWFL, AND BELOW 20%
ACROSS WCFL TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE
MORNING AFTER 14Z OR SO, WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE, WITH NOTABLY LOWER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER CHANCES, EXCLUDING MENTION THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SW FLORIDA WITH PREVAILING
WINDS FROM THE NORTH BECOMES EAST TO NORTHEAST. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS
INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
A FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 40-50 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP 25 MPH OUT OF THE
EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 83 66 85 / 10 10 0 10
FMY 64 86 64 88 / 20 10 0 20
GIF 64 85 64 88 / 10 20 0 10
SRQ 65 82 64 84 / 20 10 0 10
BKV 59 85 58 87 / 10 10 0 10
SPG 69 82 69 84 / 10 10 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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