747
FXUS62 KTBW 260503
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
103 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
AFTERNOON WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4 ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR PATTERN
WILL HOLD ON FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PERSIST MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-4 IN REGION OF BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL DECREASE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
CREATE LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE VCNTY
PGD/RSW/FMY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL CREATE LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. POSSIBLY AN EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS EACH DAY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 66 85 66 / 10 0 10 0
FMY 86 64 88 66 / 10 0 20 10
GIF 85 64 88 65 / 20 0 10 0
SRQ 82 64 84 65 / 10 0 10 0
BKV 85 58 87 58 / 10 0 10 0
SPG 82 69 84 69 / 10 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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