487
FXUS62 KTBW 270012
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
812 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
NO CHANGE NEEDED TO EXISTING FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION WITH ONLY A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS ACROSS W FL THIS
EVENING OWING MOSTLY TO SEA BREEZE AND OTHER RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY FIRE DURING THE EVENING
BUT OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED SPARSE COVERAGE DIMINISHING INTO
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH PATCHY MIST/FOG POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALOFT WEST OF FLORIDA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SETUP HAS
KEPT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH
A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY AROUND OR JUST EAST OF I-75 AND
FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING. BEST
CHANCES ARE FOR THE INTERIOR AND LOWEST CHANCES ARE FOR THE NATURE
COAST. SOME SHOWERS LINGER MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER
THAN THE WEEKEND, THEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION, WITH EVEN
LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WE BRIEFLY GET
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL (BUT STILL ABOVE) FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GO RIGHT BACK UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTING LAL
AND SWFL TERMINALS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.
PATCHY MIST/FOG CHANCES REMAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY, BUT GENERALLY LOW ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO EXCLUDE MENTION
THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
RATHER LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST STARTING SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 64 88 66 88 / 30 10 0 20
GIF 65 88 65 86 / 20 10 0 30
SRQ 64 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 20
BKV 59 86 58 83 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 70 84 69 85 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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