677
FXUS62 KTBW 270648
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
248 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY STABLE WITH A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE
TBW 27/00Z SOUNDING. A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE INCREASED STABILITY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING UNDER THE
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, MAINLY FROM INLAND
MANATEE COUNTY AND SOUTH...CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY VERY WARM AND DRY ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC RIDING OVER THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CREATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-4 ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL DECREASE THE
CHANCE OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, AND
WILL DROP A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
PATCHY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY CREATE LCL MVFR VSBYS
AND IFR CIGS WITH THE BEST CHANCE VCNTY LAL/PGD. ANY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG
AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP BELOW
CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY EARLY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 65 85 65 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 89 66 88 67 / 10 10 20 30
GIF 88 64 85 65 / 10 10 20 20
SRQ 84 65 85 66 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 86 58 84 59 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 85 68 85 67 / 0 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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