807
FXUS62 KTBW 271753
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
153 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
BROAD UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE GULF WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE W ATLANTIC STRETCHES BACK OVER THE STATE KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY STABLE FOR ONLY ISOLATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER SW AND S
ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER S FL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
NEAR THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4 ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL DECREASE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, THEN ONLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES
THRU MONDAY THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VRF CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SEABREEZE WINDS AND SCT CLOUDS THRU
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LCL MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS TOWARDS 12Z IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE N-NE. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS BY EARLY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OCCASIONALY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 86 65 81 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 66 88 67 83 / 10 20 20 40
GIF 64 86 65 79 / 10 20 20 30
SRQ 65 86 66 83 / 0 10 10 30
BKV 58 85 59 80 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 69 85 69 82 / 0 0 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DAVIS
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