092
FXUS62 KTBW 280013
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
813 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING
BUT WILL CONTINUE RETREATING S/E OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE SE U.S. BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
LARGELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE, HOWEVER HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE POTENTIAL REFORMATION/DEVELOPMENT ALONG COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADVECTION INLAND POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS POST SUNRISE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A FEW AREAS
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FIRED UP
ACROSS PARTS OF SWFL THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS, AND WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS CONTINUE, WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY'S FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, LIKELY KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S, WHILE SWFL WARMS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD HIGHS BEFORE LATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT PASSES, WITH GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING,
WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
BROAD UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE GULF WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE W ATLANTIC STRETCHES BACK OVER THE STATE KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY STABLE FOR ONLY ISOLATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER POPS OVER SW AND S
ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER S FL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
NEAR THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4 ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL DECREASE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, THEN ONLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES
THRU MONDAY THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
EARLY EVENING VCSH FOR SWFL TERMINALS RESULTING FROM LOCAL SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW COLLISIONS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS CHANCES BELOW 50%, THEREFORE EXCLUDED
MENTION THIS CYCLE AND MAINTAINED SCT010 FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS IN ITS WAKE, AS HIGH AS 10-20
KNOTS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR WCFL
TERMINALS, INCREASING LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS SWFL TERMINALS
ALONG WITH VCSH EXPECTED.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE N-NE. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS BY EARLY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OCCASIONALY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 86 65 81 / 0 0 10 20
FMY 66 88 67 83 / 10 20 20 40
GIF 64 86 65 79 / 10 20 20 30
SRQ 65 86 66 83 / 0 10 10 30
BKV 58 85 59 80 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 69 85 69 82 / 0 0 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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