432
FXUS62 KTBW 280639
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM RATHER HUMID START TO THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC RIDING OVER THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4 ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
WEEK WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH, BUT WILL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER IN THE DAY HOLDING DOWN TEMPS. COOLER ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS. A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AREA OF VFR CIGS 050-070 OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TERMINALS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DEVELOP AND MAY IMPACT TERMINALS FOR
A FEW HOURS WITH MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY EARLY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 65 82 66 / 0 0 20 10
FMY 89 67 83 66 / 20 30 40 10
GIF 87 65 79 65 / 10 10 30 10
SRQ 87 66 83 66 / 10 10 20 10
BKV 85 59 80 60 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 86 68 82 69 / 0 0 20 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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