413
FXUS62 KTBW 281240
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
840 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT N WINDS THIS MORNING THEN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS BECOMING
VERY GUSTY WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AOA 030-040K FT OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM RATHER HUMID START TO THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC RIDING OVER THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4 ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
WEEK WHICH WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH, BUT WILL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER IN THE DAY HOLDING DOWN TEMPS. COOLER ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS. A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY EARLY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 65 82 66 / 0 0 20 10
FMY 89 67 83 66 / 20 30 40 10
GIF 87 65 79 65 / 10 10 30 10
SRQ 87 66 83 66 / 10 10 20 10
BKV 85 59 80 60 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 86 68 82 69 / 0 0 20 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
AVIATION...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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