869
FXUS62 KTBW 281750
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS SHUNTED THE UPPER
RIDGE WESTWARD TO TEX/MEX REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWARD A
WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN N FL WILL SLOWLY MOVE
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ISOLATED AFTERNOON
POPS TO S INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY NE WINDS THAT WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE
THROUGH THE DAY, TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER S FL WITH E FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OVERRUNNING THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4 ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THROUGH MID WEEK, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
REDUCED RAIN CHANCES. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE W ATLANTIC THE
PERSISTENT E-SE LL FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE SEABREEZE
POPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING DOWN
THE FL PENINSULA. BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY NE WINDS TO INCREASE IN
C FL SHORTLY THEN MVFR CIGS MOVING FROM NR JAX TO DAB TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY 00Z CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
SLIGHTLY. ALSO, GUIDANCE SHOWING ISOLD SHRA IN SW FL SITES THIS
EVENING TO KEEP VCSH ONGOING.
MARINE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW OVER THE NE GULF WITH GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IS PRODUCING BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY BUT MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. INCREASED WINDS ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGH
DISPERSION VALUES AS WELL. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 82 68 84 / 0 20 10 50
FMY 67 83 66 85 / 30 50 10 60
GIF 66 79 66 83 / 20 30 10 50
SRQ 67 83 67 85 / 0 30 10 50
BKV 59 81 61 85 / 10 20 10 50
SPG 70 83 71 85 / 0 20 10 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DAVIS
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