124
FXUS62 KTBW 282346
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
746 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE UNDER THE INVERSION THAT SETS UP AROUND 850-800MB LEADING
TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THEN MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HAVE
TWEAKED RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA TAF SITES OF TPA, PIE,
LAL, AND SRQ. ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVE BY THIS EVENING
AND THEN SOME MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SETUP BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS SHUNTED THE UPPER
RIDGE WESTWARD TO TEX/MEX REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWARD A
WEAK AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN N FL WILL SLOWLY MOVE
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ISOLATED AFTERNOON
POPS TO S INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY NE WINDS THAT WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE
THROUGH THE DAY, TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER S FL WITH E FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OVERRUNNING THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4 ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THROUGH MID WEEK, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
REDUCED RAIN CHANCES. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE W ATLANTIC THE
PERSISTENT E-SE LL FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE SEABREEZE
POPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW OVER THE NE GULF WITH GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IS PRODUCING BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY BUT MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. INCREASED WINDS ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGH
DISPERSION VALUES AS WELL. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 82 68 84 / 0 20 10 50
FMY 67 83 66 85 / 30 50 10 60
GIF 66 79 66 83 / 20 30 10 50
SRQ 67 83 67 85 / 10 30 10 50
BKV 59 81 61 85 / 10 20 10 50
SPG 70 83 71 85 / 10 20 10 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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