084
FXUS62 KTBW 290640
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE S FL PENINSULA TODAY COUPLED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE E SEABOARD WILL LEAD TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER BREEZY TO GUSTY E/NE WINDS AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
STORMS STREAM WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4 WITH LOWER CHANCES NORTHWARD. CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE NW ATLANTIC FOR MON-TUE
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS TO
WEAKEN, WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W/SW ACROSS THE SE U.S. NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO E/SE WHILE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS THE W FL
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ON
MONDAY, AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 80S.
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED E/SE FLOW, WITH LOWER
POPS SUPPORTING ISOLATED AFTN/EVE SHOWER CHANCES WHILE HIGHS WARM
FURTHER INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR A FEW LOCATIONS,
POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING A RECORD HIGH OR TWO AT AREA CLIMATE
SITES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MVFR CIGS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST W FL TERMINALS
WITH VCSH AT SWFL TERMINALS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS LIFT TO VFR LATE MORNING WHILE WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED E/NE 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
BREEZY TO GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER MINIMUM RHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE CHANCES DIMINISH INTO MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 68 84 68 / 20 10 50 10
FMY 83 66 85 66 / 50 10 60 10
GIF 79 66 83 66 / 30 10 50 10
SRQ 83 67 85 66 / 30 10 50 10
BKV 81 61 85 61 / 20 10 50 10
SPG 83 71 85 71 / 20 10 50 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
HURT
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