036
FXUS62 KTBW 291215
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
815 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE S FL PENINSULA TODAY COUPLED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE E SEABOARD WILL LEAD TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER BREEZY TO GUSTY E/NE WINDS AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
STORMS STREAM WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4 WITH LOWER CHANCES NORTHWARD. CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE NW ATLANTIC FOR MON-TUE
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS TO
WEAKEN, WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W/SW ACROSS THE SE U.S. NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO E/SE WHILE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS THE W FL
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ON
MONDAY, AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 80S.
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED E/SE FLOW, WITH LOWER
POPS SUPPORTING ISOLATED AFTN/EVE SHOWER CHANCES WHILE HIGHS WARM
FURTHER INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR A FEW LOCATIONS,
POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING A RECORD HIGH OR TWO AT AREA CLIMATE
SITES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP OUR TERMINALS IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WE CAN
EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR LAL
AND SRQ. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
BREEZY TO GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER MINIMUM RHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE CHANCES DIMINISH INTO MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 67 84 68 / 20 0 60 10
FMY 81 67 85 67 / 50 10 60 10
GIF 80 65 83 66 / 40 10 60 10
SRQ 83 67 84 66 / 30 10 50 10
BKV 82 60 85 62 / 20 10 60 10
SPG 83 69 85 69 / 20 10 50 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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