031
FXUS62 KTBW 291818
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
218 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A STALLED OUT FRONT IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS THE FOCUS FOR EXTRA CLOUD
COVER AND ON AND OFF SHOWERS IN SW FLORIDA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPING
IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY MONDAY THE STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
WINDS TO START TO CALM DOWN. HOWEVER THE EXTRA MOISTURE WILL BE
STICKING AROUND. THE EXTRA MOISTURE PLUS THE EASTERLY BREEZE
STAYING IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ON THE WEST
COAST IN THE EVENING.
RIDGING WILL START TO SETTLE IN BY WEDNESDAY AND SIT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL GO DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS WILL BE
THE MID 60'S EACH MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP OUR TERMINALS IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. WE CAN
EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WINDS WILL START TO COME DOWN THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. WE WILL
ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW THAT
WILL START TO DRIFT OFF THE WEST COAST MONDAY EVENING. STRONG
RIDGING WILL COME OVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS EVERY EVENING CLOSE TO THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE STALLED OUT FRONT THAT BROUGHT US WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM DOWN. WE
WILL ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE NEAR THE COAST. RHS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVEL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
CHANCES REMAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 67 85 68 / 30 10 40 10
FMY 82 67 85 67 / 60 10 50 10
GIF 80 66 84 67 / 30 10 50 10
SRQ 83 66 85 66 / 30 10 40 10
BKV 81 61 86 62 / 20 10 40 10
SPG 83 71 85 71 / 20 10 40 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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